1990年代、リエンジニアリングが一世を風靡し、ビジネス界では、ダウンサイジングがもてはやされた。しかし、リエンジニアリングを実践した多くの企業は、コスト構造を改善するより前に売り上げが低下してしまった。つまり、技術革新を進める能力もまた同じように急速に低下させてしまった。リエンジニアリングは短期的にコスト上のメリットをもたらすかもしれないが、決して未来へのビジョンを与えてはくれないし、株主に長期にわたる最高利益を保証してくれない。つまり、短期的な利益向上は、従業員や地域社会の長期的な幸福にはつながらない。意思決定は、「後ろ向きの思考」と「前向きの思考」で成り立っている。前者はつねに直感的で、原因分析的になる傾向にある。後者は直感のかわりに多くに変数値を集めて評価し予測を行う。前者の代表ともいえるリエンジニアリングは万能ではないし、後者を欠いた前者だけの思考は必ず行き詰ることは歴史が証明している。 (Written by Shigeo Sunahara of CBC, Inc.)

No. 34: Reengineering is not a panacea. (November 30, 2009)

In the 1990s, reengineering predominated in the business world and downsizing based on reengineering was widespread worldwide. However, most companies that implemented reengineering decreased sales before they improved cost structure. That is, they decreased the ability to develop innovation drastically before they successfully reorganize their cost structure following what Hammer and Champy proposed. Although reengineering allows for cost reduction in the short term, it does not create a vision for the future nor does it assure shareholders of the maximum profit in the long term. That is, short-term profit improvement does not lead to long-term happiness of employees and regional community. Decision making is made up of two kinds of thoughts, namely, “backward-looking thought” and “forward-looking thought.” The former is always intuitive and liable to analyze causes, and the latter collects many valuable values, evaluates, and estimates instead of relying on intuition. Reengineering that symbolizes the “backward-looking thought” is by no means a panacea, and history has already proved that decision making based only on the “backward-looking" deadlocks in the long run.

消費の多様化が進み、全国一律価格と規模の経済性を追求した大手スーパーチェーンの苦戦が続く。そんな中、地方小売の伸びが目立っている。消費が多様化すれば、品揃えや値決めで小回りがきく地方企業のほうが強い。首都圏に地盤をもつ、ある中小の食品スーパーは価格交渉を進めやすい業界2位以下の企業の商品を中心に大量調達している。毎日安く売るから、チラシの配布や特売スペース設置のコストも不要である。米ウォールマートの幹部が視察に訪れたのも理解できる。グローバル化が進むでも、決して所得は均一にならないし、国や地域ごとの消費動向に違いは残る。地球を平均的に見るべきではない。このような全体の流れを理解せず、政府は全国一律の御旗のもとに、時給\800を全国一律の最低賃金とする政策を打ち出している。時代錯誤もはなはだしい。全国一律いう発想は、票を集めるには効果があっても、経済の活性化にはつながらず、完全に時代に逆行している。(Written by Shigeo Sunahara of CBC, Inc.)

No. 33: Pursuing market segmentation (November 24, 2009)
Consumption is growing more and more diverse. Leading supermarket chains characterized by nationally unified prices and economies of scale have a tough game. It is noteworthy that community-based retailers are enjoying brisk business in these turbulent days. As diversification develops, community-based retailers are in a better position because they can respond to diversified consumption more quickly and precisely in assortment and pricing than nationwide volume retailers. A medium-sized food supermarket in the Tokyo metropolitan area organizes its assortment with an emphasis on products from market followers instead of market leaders and gets highly competitive prices through volume purchases. Because it can sell cheap every day, it does not need flyers nor does it need cost to set up space for special sale. It is not surprising that Wal-Mart staffs came to this supermarket to learn its know-how. Even though globalization develops, income will never become uniform, and consumption trends unquestionably continue to vary with country and area. It is a mistake to pursue the global or country average. Not understanding these trends, the Japanese government tries to set up the national minimum hourly wage at \800. It is an outrageously anachronical idea. Although it is effective to collect ballots to proclaim a policy based on the uniformity across the country, it does not help a country stimulate its economy. It is a totally retrograde attitude.

日本航空の先行きが予断を許さない事態になってきた。日航は、金融バブルの影響で国際線を利用する日本のビジネスマンが激変したのが、大きな原因であるとしているが、業績をみると2005年以降、ほとんどの半期で最終損益が赤字に終わっている。このような収益構造では、事業に悪影響を与える環境の変化に対応ができず、赤字が増大するのは当然である。つまり、問題は金融バブルではなく、もっと以前から存在していたということである。事業に重大な問題が生じると、問題から目をそらして解決を先送りしたくなる。IBMのトーマス・ワトソンが問題解決について、すぐれた教訓を残している。彼は言う、「問題が生じたら、素早く解決せよ、そして、とにかく解決策を出せ。もし、解決策が間違っているのが分かったら、もっと考えろ。そうしたら、正しい解決策を生み出せる。」誰でも、重大な問題の解決を先送りしたくなる。しかし、これでは、事態は悪化するだけである。 (Written by Shigeo Sunahara of CBC, Inc.)

When a problem arises (November 16, 2009)
Japan Airlines posted a loss about \130 billion for the first half of the current fiscal year. The company attributed the deficit to the drastically decreased number of Japanese businessmen taking an international flight caused by the financial bubble that occurred last year. However, JAL's business results mostly ended in a deficit in most six-month periods since 2005. In this profit structure, no company can successfully cope with the change of business environment that adversely affects the business results, and it naturally piles up deficits. That is, problems that created the low profit structure had already existed in Japan Airlines well before it recorded such a large amount of loss in the first half of this fiscal year. When a problem arises, companies naturally leave it for later settlement instead of solving it immediately. Thomas Watson, Jr. of IBM gave us a very instructive lesson. He said, “When a problem arises, solve it quickly, and solve it right or wrong. If your solution is not right, the problem will come back to you and slap you by the face. And you can solve it right.” This lesson shows how great he was. Actually, he was one of the four finalists of the “Businessman of the Century” selected by the Fortune magazine along with Henry Ford, Alfred Sloan, and Bill Gates. Although the crown of the “Businessman of the Century” went to Henry Ford, his achievements are immortal. Putting off the solution only deteriorates the situation.

外食産業の業績が低迷している。景気が停滞すると、消費者が外食を控えるのは自然の流れといえる。政府が手厚い生活保護を支給しても、そのお金が外食に回る可能性は少ない。経済が活性化されない限り、外食産業の復活は難しい。そのような状況のなか、中堅の居酒屋チェーンが、居酒屋事業から脱却し、給食事業を育成する決断をした。難しい決断であったと想像されるが、根本的な問題は、大量仕入れで、食材を安く仕入れ、全国どこの店でも同じメニューを同じ価格で提供する戦略にある。景気が悪くなると、値下げの勝負になり、資本の論理が働き、商品単価を引き下げることの出来ない中堅居酒屋が真っ先に打撃を受ける。このような状態になると、中堅チェーンは広告を出稿しても効果はない。広告を出稿すればするほど、お客の足は大手チェーン店に向く。規模の経済性を追うと、最後は必ず資本力の勝負になり、不況期には資本力のない中堅企業から淘汰されていく。 (Written by Shigeo Sunahara of CBC, Inc.)

Agony of a medium-sized pub chain
The restaurant business remains bleak. When business stagnates, consumers naturally spend less on eating out. Even if the government gives all households generous livelihood subsidies, they will not spend much on eating out. The restaurant business will not recover unless business is activated. As expenditure on eating out decreases across the country, a medium-sized pub chain decided to branch out into the feeding service business because of dwindling sales of its main business. It was presumably a very difficult decision. However, the real issue lies in the strategy to buy in foodstuffs at low costs by dint of volume purchase and offer the same menu at the same price nationwide. When economy slows down, what matters most for restaurants is the ability to reduce prices. Then, the theory of capital works, and medium-sized restaurants cannot compete successfully because they do not have enough capital stock to reduce prices. Under these circumstances, it is useless for medium-sized restaurant chains to advertise. The more advertisements they place, the more consumes eat out at larger restaurants. It is noteworthy that pursuing economies of scale always ends in competition of capital strength, and small- and medium-sized chains without sufficient capital strength are first to quite the market.

日本の農産物が競争力のある輸出品として注目されている。2008年の農産物の輸出は、5,078億円で、04年比で1.4倍に増加している。最大の輸出先は香港であるが、米国が第二位であることが注目され、中東では日本製ミネラルウォーターの人気が高まっている。近隣アジア諸国の生活水準の上昇が大きな要素であるが、それ以上に、農家の努力を賞賛すべきである。輸出品というと工業製品をすぐに連想するが、農産物の輸出もこれから大きく伸びる。お米のコシヒカリやイチゴのとちおとめは、トヨタやパナソニックと同様に、日本が生んだ偉大なブランドである。国内市場を細分化するだけでなく、市場を世界と考えて、世界市場を細分化する努力が必要である。蓄積された先進の生産技術、高度の品質管理のノウハウを適用して、海外諸国の料理にあう農産物の生産に焦点を合わせると、もっと市場は広がる。技術をベースにして市場を多角化することが、最善の戦略といえる。 (Written by Shigeo Sunahara of CBC, Inc.)

What should be diversified is the market.
Farm products have been attracting strong attention lately as competitive products for export in Japan. Japanese exports of farm products in 2008 increased to 1.4 times to about \510 billion over 2004. The largest importer is Hong Kong, but it is noteworthy that the U.S. is the second largest importer of Japanese farm products and that Japanese mineral water is growing popular in the Middle East. The increase, of course, is mainly due to the increased living standard of Asian countries, but what matters more is the efforts of Japanese farmers to increase the quality of their products. It is easy to associate export products to industrial products, but exports of farm products are expected to grow. Koshihikari of rice　and Tochiotome of strawberry are world-class Japanese brands like Toyota and Panasonic. It is vital to segmentalize not only the Japanese domestic market but also the global market. With accumulated advanced production technology and sophisticated quality control know-how, Japanese farmers are asked to make their products saleable in the global market so that they are suitable to specific world cuisines. What is important is always to diversity the market on the basis of technology.